Monday, September 30, 2013

4 Biotech Stocks Triggering Breakout Trades

DELAFIELD, Wis. (Stockpickr) -- Professional traders running mutual funds and hedge funds don't just look at a stock's price moves; they also track big changes in volume activity. Often when above-average volume moves into an equity, it precedes a large spike in volatility.

>>5 Stocks Insiders Love Right Now

Major moves in volume can signal unusual activity, such as insider buying or selling -- or buying or selling by "superinvestors."

Unusual volume can also be a major signal that hedge funds and momentum traders are piling into a stock ahead of a catalyst. These types of traders like to get in well before a large spike, so it's always a smart move to monitor unusual volume. That said, remember to combine trend and price action with unusual volume. Put them all together to help you decipher the next big trend for any stock.

>>5 Stocks Set to Soar on Bullish Earnings

With that in mind, let's take a look at several stocks rising on unusual volume today.

Vanda Pharmaceuticals

Vanda Pharmaceuticals (VNDA) is a biopharmaceutical company focusing on the development and commercialization of clinical-stage drug candidates for central nervous system disorders. This stock closed up 9.1% to $13.03 in Wednesday's trading session.

Wednesday's Volume: 2.17 million

Three-Month Average Volume: 1.01 million

Volume % Change: 145%

>>5 Biotech Stocks Under $10 to Watch

From a technical perspective, VNDA ripped higher here and broke out above some near-term overhead resistance levels at $12.34 to $12.66 with heavy upside volume. This move is quickly pushing shares of VNDA within range of triggering another big breakout trade. That trade will hit if VNDA manages to take out Wednesday's high at $13.11 to its 52-week high at $13.30 with high volume.

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in VNDA as long as it's trending above that first breakout level at $12.34 or above support at $12 and then once it sustains a move or close above those breakout levels with volume that hits near or above 1.01 million shares. If that breakout hits soon, then VNDA will set up to enter new 52-week-high territory, which is bullish technical price action. Some possible upside targets off that move are $15 to $17.

Tetraphase Pharmaceuticals

Tetraphase Pharmaceuticals (TTPH), using its proprietary chemistry technology, creates novel antibiotics for serious and life-threatening multi-drug resistant infections. This stock closed up 8.3% at $10.27 in Wednesday's trading session.

Wednesday's Volume: 374,000

Three-Month Average Volume: 104,961

Volume % Change: 351%

>>5 Rocket Stocks to Buy as Mr. Market Climbs

From a technical perspective, TTPH ripped sharply higher here with heavy upside volume. This stock has been uptrending strong for the last two months and change, with shares moving higher from its low of $7.37 to its recent high of $10.85. During that uptrend, shares of TTPH have been consistently making higher lows and higher highs, which is bullish technical price action. That move is quickly pushing shares of TTPH within range of triggering a big breakout trade. That trade will hit if TTPH manages to take out Wednesday's high of $10.55 to its all-time high at $10.85 with high volume.

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in TTPH as long as it's trending above Wednesday's low of $9.40 or above some key near-term support at $8.72 and then once it sustains a move or close above those breakout levels with volume that this near or above 104,961 shares. If that breakout hits soon, then TTPH will set up to enter new all-time high territory, which is bullish technical price action. Some possible upside targets off that breakout are $13 to $15.

Sangamo BioSciences

Sangamo BioSciences (SGMO) is a clinical stage biopharmaceutical company engaged in the research, development and commercialization of engineered DNA-binding proteins for the development of novel therapeutic strategies for unmet medical needs. This stock closed up 4.8% at $11.09 in Wednesday's trading session.

Wednesday's Volume: 3.26 million

Three-Month Average Volume: 682,073

Volume % Change: 434%

>>5 Stocks Ready for Breakouts

From a technical perspective, SGMO spiked notably higher here right above some near-term support at $10.46 with strong upside volume. This stock has been uptrending strong for the last three months, with shares moving higher from its low of $6.86 to its recent high of $11.48. During that move, shares of SGMO have been consistently making higher lows and higher highs, which is bullish technical price action. That move has now pushed shares of SGMO within range of triggering a big breakout trade. That trade will hit if SGMO manages to take out Wednesday's high of $11.23 to its 52-week high at $11.48 with high volume.

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in SGMO as long as it's trending above support at $10.46 or its 50-day at $10.04, and then once it sustains a move or close above those breakout levels with volume that's near or above 682,073 shares. If that breakout hits soon, then SGMO will set up to enter new 52-week-high territory, which is bullish technical price action. Some possible upside targets off that move are $13 to $15.

Repros Therapeutics

Repros Therapeutics (RPRX) is development stage biopharmaceutical company focused on the development of oral small molecule drugs for major unmet medical needs in male and female health. This stock closed up 8.8% at $25.97 in Wednesday's trading session.

Wednesday's Volume: 3.95 million

Three-Month Average Volume: 615,575

Volume % Change: 549%

Shares of RPRX soared on Wednesday after the company said it is completely satisfied that all the data entered into the data base for study ZA-301 will pass any scrutiny the FDA chooses to apply.

>>5 Hated Earnings Stocks You Should Love

From a technical perspective, RPRX spiked sharply higher here with heavy upside volume. This is the second day in a row that shares of RPRX have spiked notably higher with big upside volume. This move is starting to push shares of RPRX within range of triggering a near-term breakout trade. That trade will hit if RPRX manages to take out Wednesday's high of $27.39 to its 52-week high at $28.30 with high volume.

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in RPRX as long as it's trending above $24 or $23 and then once it sustains a move or close above those breakout levels with volume that's near or above 615,575 shares. If that breakout hits soon, then RPRX will set up to enter new 52-week-high territory, which is bullish technical price action. Some possible upside targets off that breakout are $30 to $32.

To see more stocks rising on unusual volume, check out the Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume portfolio on Stockpickr.

-- Written by Roberto Pedone in Delafield, Wis.


RELATED LINKS:



>>5 Stocks Under $10 Making Big Moves



>>Why Wall Street Got Apple Wrong



>>5 Breakout Trades to Take

Follow Stockpickr on Twitter and become a fan on Facebook.

At the time of publication, author had no positions in stocks mentioned.

Roberto Pedone, based out of Delafield, Wis., is an independent trader who focuses on technical analysis for small- and large-cap stocks, options, futures, commodities and currencies. Roberto studied international business at the Milwaukee School of Engineering, and he spent a year overseas studying business in Lubeck, Germany. His work has appeared on financial outlets including

CNBC.com and Forbes.com. You can follow Pedone on Twitter at www.twitter.com/zerosum24 or @zerosum24.


Sunday, September 29, 2013

Play This $185 Billion Market With These 3 Stocks

The size of the global networking equipment market in 2010 was $137.8 billion, with the market growing at a CAGR of 3.2% between 2006 and 2010. For the period 2010-2015, this market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 6% to $184.1 billion. The rapid proliferation of mobile computing with an ever increasing demand for data is one of the drivers for this growth. Other factors like the universal acceptance of cloud computing and newer products with upgraded technologies will also drive demand for data.

Mobile data demand will increase at a CAGR of 65% over the next five years. This, combined with the rapid expansion of cloud computing, has put pressure on telecom companies and internet service providers to expand their infrastructure in order to be able to meet demand.

Data demand driving revenue

Juniper Networks (JNPR) witnessed strong growth in revenue and even stronger growth in earnings in the second quarter. It reported revenue of $1.15 billion, up 9% quarter-over-quarter and 7% year-over-year. Approximately 75% of this came from product sales. The balance was from the services segment. The product segment grew by 7.1% and the services segment grew by 6.1% year-over-year. Net income landed at $97.9 million, up from the year-ago quarter's $57.7 million.

The momentum seems set to continue going forward. This is due to the ever increasing data demand from smartphones, tablets and also from cloud computing. The ever increasing demand for data will require service providers to upgrade their infrastructure.

This segment itself accounts for approximately two-thirds of Juniper's revenue. Verizon and AT&T are two major clients of Juniper in the U.S. and each account for around 10% of Juniper's revenue. As they expand their network, Juniper's revenue should also increase.

According to a newly published report by the Dell'Oro Group, the Service Provider Edge Router and Switch market grew by 8% in the second quarter of 2013 versus the year-ago period. Mobile backhaul by serv! ice providers is resulting in an increased demand for edge routers and switches.

Juniper expects a strong performance from the service provider segment. The company is also expecting improvements in the EMEA region. It expects revenue for the third quarter to be in the $1.14 billion-$1.18 billion range.

Juniper is also seeing increased demand for its new products, primarily in routing, and that should help gross margins improve further. The company has already had a good run with new products like P4000, PTX, and QFabric. These new products accounted for nearly 10% of revenue in the last quarter.

Also, the new T4000 router will help the company's margins improve further. All these factors should enable Juniper to achieve its estimated 19.5% operating margin for the third quarter of 2013.

Datacom segment driving growth

Finisar's (FNSR) datacom segment generated $184.4 million in revenue in the last reported quarter. This was a sequential growth of 9.3%. The Ten Gigabit Ethernet or 10GbE modules contributed about 40% to the datacom segment's revenue. As organizations go digital, there are an increasing number of applications that require considerable bandwidth to support the transfer of large data, video, and audio files across networks. Using 10GbE optical links provides sufficient bandwidth to support these bandwidth-intensive applications at a lower cost.

Sales of the 10-Gbit per second (GBPS) Ethernet switches are expected to reach about $13 billion by 2016 and they will constitute nearly half of the total $28 billion Ethernet switch market by then, a forecast from the Dell'Oro Group states. This provides huge growth potential for Finisar going forward.

As per a forecast from Infonetics, the WSS component market will continue to grow at an estimated rate of 15% to 20% for next five years. In the WSS component market, Finisar enjoys the number two position with a market share of 31% and generates about $25 million in revenue per quarter. This provides a good op! portunity! for growth going forward.

Bring Your Own Device (BYOD) and network security

Aruba Networks (ARUN) is a leading provider of next-generation network access solutions for mobile enterprise. The company's Mobile Virtual Enterprise (MOVE) architecture unifies wired and wireless network infrastructures into one seamless access solution for corporate headquarters, mobile business professionals, remote workers and guests. This unified approach to access networks enables IT organizations and users to securely address the Bring Your Own Device (BYOD) phenomenon, dramatically improving productivity and lowering capital and operational costs.

Bring Your Own Device (BYOD) is a growing trend. This trend is adding a layer of complexity in managing and defining the network access level to employees. Aruba Networks' "ClearPass" software reduces this complexity by identifying users on the wireless local area network.

ClearPass generates a password according to each user's profile. This helps the administrator define fine-grained control on access policies based on identity. There is no need to install any software or setup the individual devices manually. This greatly reduces the user support costs for BYOD workplaces.

Aruba Network estimates that ClearPass will generate a gross margin of around 80% and contribute 15% to total sales in 2014. Analysts estimate that sales for the 2014 fiscal year will be $680 million.

Conclusion

Networking and communication companies will be witnessing growth in the long-term from increased demand for networking equipments.

Along with improved margins, Juniper will see growth in its revenue as a result of mobile backhaul by service providers.

Finisar's datacom and telecom segments will drive the company's revenue going forward.

The BYOD trend will boost Aruba's revenue and the share repurchase program that the company recently announced will deliver value to its shareholders.

Source: Play This $185 Billion Market With These 3 Stocks

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. (More...)

Saturday, September 28, 2013

Will Ford See Rising Prices?

With shares of Ford Motor Co. (NYSE:F) trading around $17, is F an OUTPERFORM, WAIT AND SEE, or STAY AWAY? Let's analyze the stock with the relevant sections of our CHEAT SHEET investing framework.

T = Trends for a Stock’s Movement

Ford is a producer of cars and trucks. The company also engages in other businesses, such as financing vehicles. Ford operates in two sectors, automotive and financial services. Through its sectors, Ford provides a wide range of vehicles, vehicle parts, and services to a multitude of consumers and companies worldwide. The company's products saw declining demand in the past several years as gasoline prices took a major toll on pockets. Ford is now revolutionizing its vehicles in order to compete on the world stage. Look for Ford to fuel a recovery in the American automobile industry and provide highly demanded vehicles, parts, and services.

Investors in Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) have apparently named their top picks to replace Steve Ballmer as CEO, and Ford's (NYSE:F) Alan Mulally and Computer Sciences (NYSE:CS) head Mike Lawrie are at the top of the list, according to sources who spoke to Reuters. A special committee of the company's board are combing through a list of around 40 candidates inside and outside the company, and they hope to find Ballmer's replacement by the end of the year.

T = Technicals on the Stock Chart Are Strong

Ford stock has been coasting higher over the past several months. The stock is currently trading near highs for the year and looks poised to continue. Analyzing the price trend and its strength can be done using key simple moving averages. What are the key moving averages? The 50-day (pink), 100-day (blue), and 200-day (yellow) simple moving averages. As seen in the daily price chart below, Ford is trading above its rising key averages, which signals neutral to bullish price action in the near term.

F

Source: Thinkorswim

Taking a look at the implied volatility and implied volatility skew levels of Ford options may help determine if investors are bullish, neutral, or bearish.

Implied Volatility (IV)

30-Day IV Percentile

90-Day IV Percentile

Ford Options

27.80%

36%

33%

What does this mean? This means that investors or traders are buying a minimal amount of call and put options contracts as compared to the last 30 and 90 trading days.

Put IV Skew

Call IV Skew

October Options

Flat

Average

November Options

Flat

Average

As of Tuesday, there is average demand from call buyers or sellers and low demand by put buyers or high demand by put sellers, all neutral to bullish over the next two months. To summarize, investors are buying a minimal amount of call and put option contracts and are leaning neutral to bullish over the next two months.

E = Earnings Are Improving Quarter Over Quarter

Rising stock prices are often strongly correlated with rising earnings and revenue growth rates. Also, the last four quarterly earnings announcement reactions help gauge investor sentiment on Ford’s stock. What do the last four quarterly earnings and revenue growth (Y-O-Y) figures for Ford look like and, more importantly, how did the markets like these numbers?

2013 Q2

2013 Q1

2012 Q4

2012 Q3

Earnings Growth (Y-O-Y)

15.38%

14.29%

-88.17%

0.00%

Revenue Growth (Y-O-Y)

14.71%

10.37%

5.34%

-2.65%

Earnings Reaction

2.53%

-0.22%

-4.64%

8.59%

Ford has seen improving earnings and revenue figures over the past four quarters. From these numbers, the markets have expected a little more from Ford’s recent earnings announcements.

P = Average Relative Performance Versus Peers and Sector

How has Ford stock done relative to its peers – General Motors Co. (NYSE:GM), Toyota Motor Corp. (NYSE:TM), and Tesla Motors (NASDAQ:TSLA) — and sector?

Ford

General Motors Co.

Toyota Motor Corp.

Tesla Motors

Sector

Year-to-Date Return

36.06%

29.17%

36.60%

392.10%

33.29%

Ford Motor has been an average relative performer, year to date.

Conclusion

Ford is a well-established vehicle products and services producer distributed in a multitude of countries across the globe. As the current CEO, Alan Mulally, prepares to leave, Microsoft may be planning on hiring him as its CEO. The stock has been rising higher in recent years and is now trading at highs for the year. Over the past four quarters, investors in the company have expected a little more. However, earnings and revenue figures have been improving. Relative to its peers and sector, Ford has been an year-to-date average performer. Look for Ford Motor to OUTPERFORM.

Friday, September 27, 2013

Stocks lower amid shutdown speculation

Stocks fell Friday as a federal government shutdown loomed.

The Dow Jones industrial average was down 0.5%, the Standard & Poor's 500 index off 0.4% and Nasdaq composite was 0.1% lower in afternoon trading.

On Thursday, the Dow advanced 0.4% to 15,328.30 while the S&P 500 index rose 0.4% to close at 1,698.67. The Nasdaq climbed 0.7% to 3,787.43.

CONSUMER SPENDING: Rises 0.3%

THURSDAY: Stocks snap 5-day losing streak

SHUTDOWN: Economy would feel it

"People are cautious as we enter the last quarter and no point in taking a position with so many macro issues overhanging the market" such as a battle over the U.S. debt limit looming in October, said Andrew Sullivan, director of Asian sales trading at Kim Eng Securities.

Benchmark oil for November delivery fell 57 cents to $103.60 per barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract rose 37 cents to settle at $103.03 on Thursday.

Asian stocks drifted on Friday.

Japan's Nikkei 225 dipped 0.4% to 14,765.29 after the country's consumer price inflation rose at the fastest rate in five years.

Regional bourses in Europe declined.

Later Friday, the U.S. Commerce Department will release data on personal income and spending for August.

Contributing: Associated Press

Wednesday, September 25, 2013

Out With That, In With This (PZOO, ARTX)

For those traders who were lucky and smart enough to be in an Arotech Corporation (NASDAQ:ARTX) before today, then congratulations - you're up at least 38% on your position. Now it's time to get out. Conversely, if you're looking for a new name to get into (or perhaps looking for a place to park your ARTX proceeds), then you may want to consider Pazoo Inc. (OTCBB:PZOO)... a tiny online retailer of health and fitness goods. PZOO has dropped several tell-tale hints that more upside is on the way.

Just to quell the inevitable "colorful disagreements", this isn't a long-term judgment call on Arotech Corporation. The company is a fine company, and has an encouraging future. Likewise, this isn't necessarily a long-term bullish stance on Pazoo Inc. The company's got a compelling niche concept, but it's a startup, and as such the odds are against it. This take is simply an acknowledgement that both PZOO and ARTX are trading instruments, and are fully capable of taking on a life of their own... a life that may or may not reflect their underlying corporate value. If one can take advantage of that short-term mis-pricing or hype-driven trend, why not do so?

As for ARTX, in simplest terms, the stock's overbought thanks to today's massive (though possibly deserved) jump. Between the gap and the volume surge, there's not likely to be much - if any - gas left in the tank.

It's the volume that's more problematic than the gap, truth be told. Volume spikes like this one also tend to accompany one-hit-wonder days. Anybody who wanted to get into Arotech has likely done so today, out of fear that they miss out on more upside. Ironically, with all the would-be buyers having rushed in, there's not likely to be any more interested buyers willing to pay this lofty price. If anything, there are now more sellers at this level... folks who are tempted to take profits (and folks who will become more tempted to do so if ARTX continues to taper). Being proactive and walking away now on your terms may be the prudent move to make, at least until Arotech Corporation find a firm bottom.

So what's the deal with PZOO? Had it not been for today's uptick - which reversed a nasty pullback from multi-week highs hit last week, it may not even be worth mentioning. But, today's modest (so far) bullishness puts the final touches on a rally effort that's been developing since May. Said another way, the bears had a perfect opportunity to unwind all the work that the Pazoo Inc. bulls had done up until last week. Today's bullish nudge, however, offers just enough of a glimmer of hope to say the uptrend is underway again.

As was already noted, PZOO isn't necessarily a name you want to get married to. While it's only a $3.6 million organization, sales are still nil, and the company is still very much in its development stage. That doesn't mean there's not a trading opportunity packed into Pazoo's shares, however. This hype-driven rally being made by people who like the idea of getting in at the ground floor could last for some time. The 'story' is just now starting to resonate within the market's trading circles.

If you'd like to get more trading ideas and insights like this, become a subscriber to the free SmallCap Network daily newsletter. You'll get stock picks, market calls, and more.

Tuesday, September 24, 2013

10 Best Undervalued Stocks To Own Right Now

Warren Buffett, chairman and CEO of Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A)(BRK.B), issued his 2011 shareholder letter and spent three hours on CNBC over the last three days. One of the themes of the discussions was his optimism about the financial sector of the U.S. ��he banking industry is back on its feet,��he said in his shareholder letter. Three banking stocks that he talked about in particular were Bank of America (BAC), JP Morgan (JPM) and Wells Fargo (WFC).

Bank of America (BAC)

Buffett bought $5 billion worth of Bank of America warrants to buy 700 million shares at $7.14 each until they expire in 2012, and perpetual preferred stock that yields $300 million a year. In his annual letter, Buffett said, ��ur warrants to buy 700 million Bank of America shares will likely be of great value before they expire.��Bank of America trades for $8.04 on Monday, giving Buffett a paper profit of $656 million already.

Bank of America had mixed financial results in 2011. Deposits declined from $13.6 billion in 2010 to $12.7 billion in 2011, as 9.6 percent of all bank customers switched banks, compared to 8.7 percent in 2010. Bank of America particularly suffered customer backlash from its attempt to raise fees in order to generate revenue. Revenue declined from $52.7 billion in 2010, to $45.6 billion in 2011. Net income increased to $1.4 billion in 2011 from a net loss of $2.2 billion in 2010.

Brian Moynihan, who Buffett extols in his shareholder letter, introduced Project New BAC, which aims to streamline the business. Phase one, which began in 2011, included the elimination of 30,000 jobs and reduction of costs by $5 billion per year by 2014. The company does not yet know where it will make reductions for Phase 2.

��t Bank of America, some huge mistakes were made by prior management. Brian Moynihan has made excellent progress in cleaning these up, though the completion of that process will take a number of years,��Buffett added in his letter.

Bank of America�� P/! E, P/B and P/S ratios:

BAC pe,ps,pb Interactive Chart

JP Morgan (JPM)

Buffett praised JPMorgan (JPM) on his recent interview with Becky Quick on CNBC. While he does not own the stock for Berkshire Hathaway, he said he bought it for his personal portfolio. The stock hit a low of $27.85 in November last year, but has since rallied to $39 per share.

Buffett did not go into detail about this holding, only mentioning that he admires CEO Jamie Dimon�� shareholder letters. ��e thinks well, and he writes extremely well,��Buffett said. He also said in his shareholder letter that he and Dimon share similar views on valuation. ��he first law of capital allocation ��whether the money is slated for acquisitions or share repurchases ��is that what is smart at one price is dumb at another. (One CEO who always stresses the price/value factor in repurchase decisions is Jamie Dimon at J.P. Morgan; I recommend that you read his annual letter.)��Buffett said.

The bank has also been steadily growing revenue and earnings. Revenue increased from $67.3 billion in 2008, to $100.4 billion in 2009, and $102.7 billion in 2010. For the full year 2011, revenue slipped to just under $100 billion. Earnings increased from $5.6 billion in 2008 to $9.3 billion in 2009, to $17.4 billion in 2010. For the full year 2011, it generated record net income of $19 billion. It also still pays a dividend, which it has increased for the last three years and that most recently reached $3.96 per diluted share in 2010. Return on tangible common equity was approximately 15 percent for 2011.

JPMorgan�� P/E, P/B and P/S ratios:

WFC pe,ps,pb Interactive Chart

Wells Fargo (WFC)

After the fourth quarter, Buffett owns 7.6 percent of Wells Fargo (WFC), a stake for which he paid $9.1 billion and that is now worth $11 billion. The total holding includes a $1 billion addition he made to the position in the fourth quarter.

Buffett said of the bank in his annual letter, ��h! e banking! industry is back on its feet, and Wells Fargo is prospering. Its earnings are strong, its assets solid and its capital at record levels.��

Most recently, in the fourth quarter, Wells Fargo grew earnings, revenue, loans, deposits and capital. It has grown in most areas over the long term. Wells had been increasing its revenue since 2006, but it fell slightly from $88.7 billion in 2009 to $85.2 billion in 2010, and is at $81.2 billion for the trailing 12 months. Earnings have increased each year since 2008 and reached a record $15.9 billion in 2011, a 28 percent increase from 2010. In spite of the high bank-switching levels for the year, it grew deposits by $72 billion, or 9 percent.

The bank repurchased 86 million shares of its common stock and redeemed $9.2 billion of its high-cost trust preferred securities. The year also marked the completion of the conversion of its Wachovia retail banking stores, which was the largest conversion in banking history. By the second quarter of 2012 it expects its expenses to decline by $500 million to $700 million from the first quarter due largely to the elimination of merger expenses.

Wells Fargo�� P/E, P/B and P/S ratios:

WFC pe,ps,pb Interactive Chart

See Warren Buffett�� fully updated portfolio here or check out the Undervalued Stocks, Top Growth Companies, and High Yield stocks of Warren Buffett.

10 Best Undervalued Stocks To Own Right Now: Dollar Tree Inc.(DLTR)

Dollar Tree, Inc. operates discount variety stores in the United States and Canada. Its stores offer merchandise primarily at the fixed price of $1.00. The company operates its stores under the names of Dollar Tree, Deal$, Dollar Tree Deal$, Dollar Giant, and Dollar Bills. Its stores offer consumable merchandise, including candy and food, and health and beauty care, as well as household consumables, such as paper, plastics, household chemicals, in select stores, and frozen and refrigerated food; variety merchandise, which includes toys, durable housewares, gifts, party goods, greeting cards, softlines, and other items; and seasonal goods, such as Easter, Halloween, and Christmas merchandise. As of April 30, 2011, it operated 4,089 stores in 48 states and the District of Columbia, as well as 88 stores in Canada. The company was founded in 1986 and is based in Chesapeake, Virginia.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Paul Ausick]

    Dollar General�� share price is up less than 6% in the past 12 months, but since the beginning of the year shares have risen more than 22%. And even then, Dollar General�trails Dollar Tree Inc. (NASDAQ: DLTR) in share price growth since January 1. Dollar Tree stock is up 30%.

10 Best Undervalued Stocks To Own Right Now: Caterpillar Inc.(CAT)

Caterpillar Inc. manufactures and sells construction and mining equipment, diesel and natural gas engines, industrial gas turbines, and diesel-electric locomotives worldwide. It operates through three lines of businesses: Machinery, Engines, and Financial Products. The Machinery business offers construction, mining, and forestry machinery, including track and wheel tractors, track and wheel loaders, pipelayers, motor graders, wheel tractor-scrapers, track and wheel excavators, backhoe loaders, log skidders, log loaders, off-highway trucks, articulated trucks, paving products, skid steer loaders, underground mining equipment, tunnel boring equipment, and related parts. It also manufactures diesel-electric locomotives; and manufactures and services rail-related products and logistics services for other companies. The Engines business provides diesel, heavy fuel, and natural gas reciprocating engines for Caterpillar machinery, electric power generation systems, marine, petrol eum, construction, industrial, agricultural, and other applications. It offers industrial turbines and turbine-related services for oil and gas, and power generation applications. This business also remanufactures Caterpillar engines, machines, and engine components; and offers remanufacturing services for other companies. The Financial Products business provides retail and wholesale financing alternatives for Caterpillar machinery and engines, solar gas turbines, and other equipment and marine vessels, as well as offers loans and various forms of insurance to customers and dealers. It also offers financing for vehicles, power generation facilities, and marine vessels. The company markets its products directly, as well as through its distribution centers, dealers, and distributors. It was formerly known as Caterpillar Tractor Co. and changed its name to Caterpillar Inc. in 1986. Caterpillar Inc. was founded in 1925 and is headquartered in Peoria, Illinois.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Paul Ausick]

    When Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE: CAT) reported earnings in July, the company took the opportunity to cut its revenue and earnings guidance for the full fiscal year. Mining equipment maker Joy Global Inc. (NYSE: JOY) reported third fiscal quarter results Wednesday morning and reaffirmed the lowered guidance it gave at the end of the second quarter.

Top 5 Canadian Companies To Watch In Right Now: Tupperware Corporation(TUP)

Tupperware Brands Corporation operates as a direct seller of various products across a range of brands and categories through an independent sales force. The company engages in the manufacture and sale of kitchen and home products, and beauty and personal care products. It offers preparation, storage, and serving solutions for the kitchen and home, as well as kitchen cookware and tools, children?s educational toys, microwave products, and gifts under the Tupperware brand name primarily in Europe, Africa, the Middle East, the Asia Pacific, and North America. The company provides beauty and personal care products, which include skin care products, cosmetics, bath and body care, toiletries, fragrances, nutritional products, apparel, and related products principally in Mexico, South Africa, the Philippines, Australia, and Uruguay. It offers beauty and personal care products under the Armand Dupree, Avroy Shlain, BeautiControl, Fuller, NaturCare, Nutrimetics, Nuvo, and Swissgar de brand names. The company sells its Tupperware products directly to distributors, directors, managers, and dealers; and beauty products primarily through consultants and directors. As of December 26, 2009, the Tupperware distribution system had approximately 1,800 distributors, 61,300 managers, and 1.3 million dealers; and the sales force representing the Beauty businesses approximately 1.1 million. The company was formerly known as Tupperware Corporation and changed its name to Tupperware Brands Corporation in December 2005. The company was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Orlando, Florida.

10 Best Undervalued Stocks To Own Right Now: Schlumberger N.V.(SLB)

Schlumberger Limited, together with its subsidiaries, supplies technology, integrated project management, and information solutions to the oil and gas exploration and production industries worldwide. The company?s Oilfield Services segment provides exploration and production services; wireline technology that offers open-hole and cased-hole services; supplies engineering support, directional-drilling, measurement-while-drilling, and logging-while-drilling services; and testing services. This segment also offers well services; supplies well completion services and equipment; artificial lift; data and consulting services; geo services; and information solutions, such as consulting, software, information management system, and IT infrastructure services that support oil and gas industry. Its WesternGeco segment provides reservoir imaging, monitoring, and development services; and operates data processing centers and multiclient seismic library. This segment also offers variou s services include 3D and time-lapse (4D) seismic surveys to multi-component surveys for delineating prospects and reservoir management. The company?s M-I SWACO segment supplies drilling fluid systems to improve drilling performance; fluid systems and specialty tools to optimize wellbore productivity; production technology solutions to maximize production rates; and environmental solutions that manages waste volumes generated in drilling and production operations. Its Smith Oilfield segment designs, manufactures, and markets drill bits and borehole enlargement tools; and supplies drilling tools and services, tubular, completion services, and other related downhole solutions. The company?s Distribution segment markets pipes, valves, and fittings, as well as mill, safety, and other maintenance products. This segment also provides warehouse management, vendor integration, and inventory management services. Schlumberger Limited was founded in 1927 and is based in Houston, Texas.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Dr. Kent Moors]

    That's why some of the biggest OFS providers - like Schlumberger (NYSE: SLB), Halliburton (NYSE: HAL) and Weatherford International (NYSE: WFT) - have been buying up oil and gas equipment companies.

  • [By Tony Daltorio]

    The biggest oilfield service companies should get a big lift from the boom, Moors said. That includes Schlumberger Ltd. (NYSE: SLB), Halliburton Co. (NYSE: HAL), Weatherford International Ltd. (NYSE: WFT), and Baker Hughes Inc. (NYSE: BHI).

Sunday, September 22, 2013

5 Hated Earnings Stocks You Should Love

DELAFIELD, Wis. (Stockpickr) -- Short-sellers hate being caught short a stock that reports a blowout quarter. When this happens, we often see a tradable short squeeze develop as the bears rush to cover their positions to avoid big losses. Even the best short-sellers know that it's never a great idea to stay short once a bullish earnings report sparks a big short-covering rally.

>>5 Rocket Stocks to Buy as Mr. Market Climbs

This is why I scan the market for heavily shorted stocks that are about to report earnings. You only need to find a few of these stocks in a year to help enhance your portfolio returns -- the gains become so outsized in such a short time frame that your profits add up quickly.

That said, let's not forget that stocks are heavily shorted for a reason, so you have to use trading discipline and sound money management when playing earnings short-squeeze candidates. It's important that you don't go betting the farm on these plays and that you manage your risk accordingly. Sometimes the best play is to wait for the stock to break out following the report before you jump in to profit off a short squeeze. This way, you're letting the trend emerge after the market has digested all of the news. >>5 Stocks Ready for Breakouts Of course, sometimes the stock is going to be in such high demand that you risk missing a lot of the move by waiting. That's why it can be worth betting prior to the report -- but only if the stock is acting technically very bullish and you have a very strong conviction that it is going to rip higher. Just remember that even when you have that conviction and have done your due diligence, the stock can still get hammered if The Street doesn't like the numbers or guidance. If you do decide to bet ahead of a quarter, then you might want to use options to limit your capital exposure. Heavily shorted stocks are usually the names that make the biggest post-earnings moves and have the most volatility. I personally prefer to wait until all the earnings-related news is out for a heavily shorted stock and then jump in and trade the prevailing trend. >>5 Stocks With Big Insider Buying With that in mind, here's a look at several stocks that could experience big short squeezes when they report earnings this week.

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My first earnings short-squeeze trade idea is integrated financial information and analytical applications provider FactSet Research Systems (FDS), which is set to release numbers on Tuesday before the market open. Wall Street analysts, on average, expect FactSet Research Systems to report revenue of $218.93 million on earnings of $1.21 per share.

The current short interest as a percentage of the float FactSet Research Systems is pretty high at 15.7%. That means that out of the 40.10 million shares in the tradable float, 6.31 million shares are sold short by the bears. This is a high short interest on a stock with a relatively low float. Any bullish earnings news could easily spark a sharp short covering rally for shares of FDS post-earnings. >>Why Wall Street Got Apple Wrong From a technical perspective, FDS is currently trending above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, which is bullish. This stock has been uptrending strong for the last few weeks, with shares ripping higher from its low of $101.07 to its intraday high of $112.89 a share. During that move, shares of FDS have been consistently making higher lows and higher highs, which is bullish technical price action. If you're bullish on FDS, then I would wait until after its report and look for long-biased trades if this stock manages to break out above its 52-week high at $112.90 a share (or its intraday high on Monday if greater) with high volume. Look for volume on that move that registers near or above its three-month average action of 397,438 shares. If that breakout hits, then FDS will set up to enter new 52-week-high territory, which is bullish technical price action. Some possible upside targets off that breakout are $120 to $125 a share. I would simply avoid FDS or look for short-biased trades if after earnings it fails to trigger that breakout and then drops back below some key near-term support level $110 a share with high volume. If we get that move, then FDS will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major support levels at its 50-day moving average of $107.72 a share to $101.07 a share.

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Another potential earnings short-squeeze play is Apogee Enterprises (APOG), a designer and developer of value-added glass products, services and systems, which is set to release its numbers on Wednesday after the market close. Wall Street analysts, on average, expect Apogee Enterprises to report revenue of $187 million on earnings of 23 cents per share.

>>5 Big Trades to Take The current short interest as a percentage of the float for Apogee Enterprises is pretty high at 4.1%. That means that out of the 26.40 million shares in the tradable float, 1.16 million shares are sold short by the bears. The bears have also been increasing their bets from the last reporting period by 10.3%, or by 107,864 shares. If the bears are caught pressing their bets into a strong quarter, then shares of APOG could jump sharply higher post-earnings as the bears rush to cover some of their bets. From a technical perspective, APOG is currently trending above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, which is bullish. This stock has been uptrending strong for the last two months and change, with shares moving higher from its low of $22.13 a share to its high of $29.42 a share. During that uptrend, shares of APOG have been consistently making higher lows and higher highs, which is bullish technical price action. That move has now pushed shares of APOG within range of triggering a near-term breakout trade. If you're in the bull camp on APOG, then I would wait until after its report and look for long-biased trades if this stock manages to break out above some near-term overhead resistance at $29.42 a share to its 52-week high at $30.26 a share with high volume. Look for volume on that move that hits near or above its three-month average action of 196,572 shares. If that breakout hits, then APOG will set up to enter new 52-week-high territory, which is bullish technical price action. Some possible upside targets off that breakout are $35 to $40 a share. I would simply avoid APOG or look for short-biased trades if after earnings it fails to trigger that breakout and then drops back below some key near-term support at $28 a share to its 50-day moving average at $27.41 a share with high volume. If we get that move, then APOG will set up to re-test or possibly take out its 200-day moving average at $25.89 a share.

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One potential earnings short-squeeze candidate is Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (CBRL), which is set to release numbers on Wednesday before the market open. Wall Street analysts, on average, expect Cracker Barrel Old Country Store to report revenue of $668.68 million on earnings of $1.35 per share.

Just recently, Wunderlich initiated coverage of Cracker Barrel Old Country Store with a hold rating and a $106 per share price target. >>6 Stocks Moving on Unusual Volume The current short interest as a percentage of the float for Cracker Barrel Old Country Store is notable at 4.6%. That means that out of the 18.46 million shares in the tradable float, 1.08 million shares are sold short by the bears. The bears have also been increasing their bets from the last reporting period by 10.3%, or by 100,000 shares. If the bears are caught pressing their bets into a bullish quarter, then shares of CBRL could rip sharply higher post-earnings as the bears rush to cover some of their bets. From a technical perspective, CBRL is currently trending above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, which is bullish. This stock has been uptrending strong for the last six months and changes, with shares moving higher from its low of $78.33 to its intraday high of $106.65 a share. During that uptrend, shares of CBRL have been making mostly higher lows and higher highs, which is bullish technical price action. If you're bullish on CBRL, then I would wait until after its report and look for long-biased trades if this stock manages to break out above its 52-week high at $106.65 a share (or its intraday high on Tuesday if greater) with high volume. Look for volume on that move that hits near or above its three-month average action of 141,938 shares. If that breakout triggers, then CBRL will set up to enter new 52-week-high territory, which is bullish technical price action. Some possible upside targets off that breakout are $110 to $115, or even $120 a share. I would avoid CBRL or look for short-biased trades if after earnings it fails to trigger that breakout, and then drops back below some key near-term support at $102 a share with high volume. If we get that move, then CBRL will set up to re-test or possibly take out its 50-day moving average of $99.62 a share to more near-term support levels at $96.32 to $94.85 a share.

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Another earnings short-squeeze prospect is Clarcor (CLC), a provider of filtration products, filtration systems and services, which is set to release numbers on Wednesday after the market close. Wall Street analysts, on average, expect Clarcor to report revenue of $298.74 million on earnings of 66 cents per share.

>>5 Stocks Under $10 Set to Soar The current short interest as a percentage of the float for Clarcor sits at 3.1%. That means that out of the 49.90 million shares in the tradable float, 1.56 million shares are sold short by the bears. The bears have also been increasing their bets from the last reporting period by 14.1%, or by about 192,000 shares. If the bears are caught pressing their bets into a solid quarter, then shares of CLC could soar sharply higher post-earnings as the bears jump to cover some of those short positions. From a technical perspective, CLC is currently trending above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, which is bullish. This stock has been uptrending for the last few weeks, with shares moving higher from its low of $52.29 to its intraday high of $57.07 a share. During that uptrend, shares of CLC have been consistently making higher lows and higher highs, which is bullish technical price action. That move has now pushed shares of CLC within range of triggering a major breakout trade. If you're bullish on CLC, then I would wait until after its report and look for long-biased trades if this stock manages to break out above some near-term overhead resistance levels at $56.75 to its 52-week high at $57.31 a share (or its intraday high on Wednesday if greater) with high volume. Look for volume on that move that hits near or above its three-month average action of 170,683 shares. If that breakout triggers, then CLC will set up to enter new 52-week-high territory, which is bullish technical price action. Some possible upside targets off that breakout are $60 to $65 a share, or even $70 a share. I would avoid CLC or look for short-biased trades if after earnings it fails to trigger that breakout, and then drops back below some near-term support at $56 to its 50-day moving average of $55.24 share with high volume. If we get that move, then CLC will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major support levels at $54 to $53 a share, or even its 200-day moving average at $51.90 a share.

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My final earnings short-squeeze play today is property and casualty insurance player Tower Group International (TWPG), which is set to release numbers on Tuesday before the market open. Wall Street analysts, on average, expect Tower Group International to report revenue of $421.10 million on a loss of 52 cents per share.

The current short interest as a percentage of the float for Tower Group International is pretty high at 7.9%. That means that out of the 53.23 million shares in the tradable float, 2.90 million shares are sold short by the bears. This is a decent short interest on a stock with a relatively low float. If the bulls get the earnings news they're looking for, then this stock could easily spike sharply higher post-earnings as the bears rush to cover some of their bets. From a technical perspective, TWGP is currently trending below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, which is bearish. This stock has been downtrending badly for the last month and change, with shares plunging from its high of $22.04 a share to its 52-week low of $13.39 a share. During that move, shares of TWGP have been consistently making lower highs and lower lows, which is bearish technical price action. That move also saw shares of TWGP gap down sharply from around $21.50 to $16 a share. This action has pushed shares of TWGP into oversold territory, since the stock's current relative strength reading is 25.38. If you're in the bull camp on TWGP, then I would wait until after its report and look for long-biased trades if this stock manages to break out above some near-term overhead resistance levels at $13.39 to $14.36 a share with high volume. Look for volume on that move that hits near or above its three-month average volume of 568,536 shares. If that breakout triggers, then TWGP will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major overhead resistance levels at $16.59 to its 50-day moving average at $17.77 a share. I would avoid TWGP or look for short-biased trades if after earnings it fails to trigger that breakout, and then drops back below its 52-week low at $13.39 a share with high volume. If we get that move, then TWGP will set up to enter new 52-week-low territory, which is bearish technical price action. Some possible targets off that move are $12 to $11 a share. To see more potential earnings short squeeze plays, check out the Earnings Short Squeeze Plays portfolio on Stockpickr. -- Written by Roberto Pedone in Delafield, Wis. RELATED LINKS: >>5 REITs That Call Bernanke's Bluff >>5 Stocks Ready for Breakouts >>Why Wall Street Got Apple Wrong Follow Stockpickr on Twitter and become a fan on Facebook.

At the time of publication, author had no positions in stocks mentioned. Roberto Pedone, based out of Delafield, Wis., is an independent trader who focuses on technical analysis for small- and large-cap stocks, options, futures, commodities and currencies. Roberto studied international business at the Milwaukee School of Engineering, and he spent a year overseas studying business in Lubeck, Germany. His work has appeared on financial outlets including CNBC.com and Forbes.com. You can follow Pedone on Twitter at www.twitter.com/zerosum24 or @zerosum24.

Saturday, September 21, 2013

JPMorgan Chase's Rumored Settlement Is Bad for Investors

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- I usually roll my eyes when I hear people talking about "evil" bankers and how they caused the financial crisis and how they price credit card fees too high.

In an article Tuesday, I shared my opinion that the government -- not Wall Street -- caused the housing crash.

But JPMorgan's (JPM) rumored agreement to reportedly pay at least a $750 million fine has me questioning whether bank executives are getting free passes on some bad behavior.

But to answer that, we have to ask another question, "Is JPMorgan really paying the fine?" The answer is no, the shareholders are paying for it, even though they didn't commit a crime or violate regulations. Some current investors weren't even shareholders at the time the alleged events took place. Two of three key players were indicted. Javier Martin-Artajo and Julien Grout have been charged with securities fraud, wire fraud, conspiracy, making false filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission and falsifying books and records. Not only is it appropriate for prosecutors to charge individuals, it's the direction prosecutors should take. The third person is Frenchman Bruno Iksil, better known as the "London Whale" because of his portfolio size. Iksil doesn't face sanctions or punishment for any wrongdoing, although he was Martin-Artajo and Grout's boss. Iksil avoided possible prosecution by entering into an immunity agreement in exchange for assisting prosecutors. Iksil may have had little or no involvement with any of the alleged criminal activity, but here's the problem with the SEC's shakedown (and that's what it truly is, a shakedown, of JPMorgan's shareholders). JPMorgan is allegedly paying a fine, in part, because "JPMorgan" didn't supervise the traders adequately. Wasn't that Iksil's job? If not, wasn't it someone else's responsibility to monitor the activity if regulations called for it? Whoever that person or people are, they should open up the checking account and write a check. In May, Goldman Sachs (GS) was fined $875,000 because a trader named Glenn Hadden violated a rule governing position size. Hidden paid a fine of $80,000 and was suspended from trading for 10 days. We don't know whether Hidden took a vacation during the suspension, but at the time of the suspension, he was working for Morgan Stanley (MS).

How is that equitable? Hadden is the one who supposedly violated a rule, and yet the supervisor's shareholders pay the largest fine, a fine that won't mean anything to anyone next year in terms of deterrence. Where is Hadden's supervisor in the story and why isn't that person opening up the checkbook?

The problem is (almost) everyone loves the current situation. The SEC loves headline-grabbing fines from companies, while the people who commit the violations often walk untouched. The only people who don't love this situation are the shareholders.

This type of punishment doesn't create much incentive for traders or their supervisors to exhibit self-control.

It's time for a re-examination of the system. At the time of publication, Weinstein had no positions in stocks mentioned. Follow @RobertWeinstein This article is commentary by an independent contributor, separate from TheStreet's regular news coverage.

Robert Weinstein is an active trader focusing on the psychological importance of risk mitigation, emotion and financial behavior of market participants. Robert co-founded the investing blog StockSaints, where he writes a journal about his trading activity and experiences. In addition to TheStreet, Robert also contributes to Real Money Pro, providing real-time trading ideas for stocks, options and futures.

Wednesday, September 18, 2013

FedEx Gains 3% as Express Shipper Delivers Higher Profits

FedEx (FDX) shares are flying this morning after the shipping company reported earnings this morning. The Wall Street Journal has the details:

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For the quarter ended Aug. 31, FedEx reported a profit of $489 million, or $1.53 a share, up from $459 million, or $1.45 a share, a year earlier. Revenue rose 2.1% to $11.02 billion. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters had projected a per-share profit of $1.50 and revenue of $10.97 billion…

The company backed its full-year earnings projection.

Citigroup’s Christian Wetherbee explains why he likes the results:

We view F1Q14 results positively as Express posted YoY improvement in operating profit and operating margin despite facing a fuel surcharge headwind , which we estimated to be ~$36m. This YoY growth comes as a result on lower pension expense and aircraft maintenance and should be improved upon in coming quarters as more cost savings initiatives in Express take hold. Looking at full year run rate profitability in Express, typical seasonality (22% of annual EBIT comes in F1Q) suggests that Express is trending toward $1.24b excluding fuel headwinds, which is in line with the better than expected results posted in F4Q13 adding a level of consistency to the improvement. We reiterate our Buy.

FedEx has gained 3.2% to $114.20, while United Parcel Service (UPS) has ticked up 0.2% to $90.08 and Arkansas Best (ABFS) has dropped 0.4% to $25.40.

Sunday, September 15, 2013

Is This The Answer To 'The Search For Yield'?

This has been an interesting year in the stock market.

As the market has been lifted to all-time highs by an accommodative monetary policy and an economy starting to fire on all cylinders, long-term investors have profited handsomely during the first half of the year. A pullback in August led the Dow Jones Industrial Average to drop nearly 1,000 points before stabilizing in the 14,800 range. Despite this setback, stocks are still showing signs of strength that should last for the rest of the year.

 

But the fuel powering the stock market has its drawbacks: Low interest rates and accommodative policy have sent yields to ultra-low levels while boosting stocks. In fact, income investors have become so frustrated by the lack of yield that this year's investing theme can be summed up in four words: the search for yield.

I learned from my colleague Nathan Slaughter's Dividend Opportunities advisory that in 1984, one-year bank CDs paid an astounding 10.4%. Yields of 9% were commonplace in the stock market after the 2008 market crash. Today, the stocks in the S&P 500 index pay an average yield of just 2.02%. Even the traditional high-yield sectors, like international utilities, are only yielding about 4%.

Further cementing the dire yield situation, Nathan ran a screen on all 12,592 U.S.-traded stocks and ADRs (American depositary receipts) -- and found that only 170 stocks of the 12,592 pay dividends higher than 9%.

But high-yielding stocks do exist in this low-yield environment. However, before I talk about one of my favorites, it's critical to understand that with high yield comes high risk. This stock is not suited for risk-shunning conservative investors but rather for those investors who understand the risk and are willing to accept it -- in return for mind-blowing yields.

My favorite stock in the ultra-high-yielding space is the agency mortgage REIT, American Capital Agency (Nasdaq: AGNC). This stock yields over 18%, which is amazing provided the low-yield environment.

A REIT, or real estate investment trust, is required by law to distribute 90% of its profits back to shareholders, hence the high yields. Mortgage REITs invest in real estate mortgages, and an agency REIT is one that only invests in government-backed mortgages. This lowers the credit risk due to the government insured nature of the mortgages.

Mortgage REITs typically leverage between six and 10 times their actual funding level. Money is made on the spread between the mortgage interest rate and the short-term interest rate. The wider this spread, the more money a mortgage REIT can make thus pass along to shareholders. This spread is the lifeblood of mortgage REITs and is where the risks and profits lie.

Rising interest rates will negatively affect many mortgage REITs. However, those that invest in 15-year mortgages rather than the standard 30-year have a stronger chance of maintaining the high yield. American Capital Agency has transferred 42% of its portfolio to these "safer" shorter-term mortgages. This flexibility shows management's willingness to change with the environment to maintain the high yields. It is my prime reason for choosing this mortgage REIT as an investment.

In addition, Gary Kain, American Capital's president and chief investment officer, gave shareholders further confidence:

"The second quarter was characterized by extreme volatility in both interest rates and mortgage spreads. In response, we remained highly disciplined with respect to our risk management activities. We reduced the size of our asset portfolio, adjusted our asset composition to be more consistent with a higher rate environment, and materially increased the duration of our hedges. As a result of these actions and evolving market conditions, our exposure to higher rates is lower than it has been in years, and our 'pay-up' risk is now minimal."

Looking at the nitty-gritty of the company, its investment portfolio totals nearly $92 billion of agency (government-backed) securities, including more than $14 billion of net TBA (to be announced) fair value mortgage positions. The company pays out $4.20 per share in annual dividends. It boasts a price to book ratio of 0.85 and appears well prepared to continue its high-performing dividend yields.

Risks to Consider: Interest rate spread risk is the primary danger to mortgage REITs. In addition, there is a pending risk of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac being shuttered. This means that there would be a shift in the security of the underlying mortgages. How this will affect agency mortgage REITs is not clear. The Federal Reserve's eventual exit from quantitative easing may also pose a danger to mortgage REITs. Remember, there is a high risk involved with obtaining these high yields. 

Action to Take --> I like American Capital Agency right now: Its price is off the highs, and the metrics currently paint a compelling picture. Other high-yielding mortgage REITs includes Annaly Capital Management (NYSE: NLY). Those who seek diversification across the high-yielding mortgage REIT space can invest in a mortgage REIT exchange-traded fund like the Market Vectors Mortgage REIT Income Fund (NYSE: MORT). This ETF consists of 14 of the highest yielding mortgage ETFs on the market; the top two holdings, as you might guess, are American Capital Agency and Annaly Capital.

P.S. -- Current yields averaging 7.2%... gains of more than 127%... and 43% safer returns than traditional investing. Amy Calistri's Daily Paycheck advisory is delivering all of these things and more. Click here to see how she's doing it and how you can join her today.

Saturday, September 14, 2013

Is Micron Technology A Risky Investment?

With shares of Micron Technology (NASDAQ:MU) trading around $9, is MU an OUTPERFORM, WAIT AND SEE or STAY AWAY? Let's analyze the stock with the relevant sections of our CHEAT SHEET investing framework:

T = Trends for a Stock’s Movement

Micron Technology is a global manufacturer and marketer of semiconductor devices, packaging solutions, and semiconductor systems for use in computing, consumer, networking, automotive, industrial, embedded and mobile products. The company operates in four segments: NAND Solutions Group, DRAM Solutions Group, Wireless Solutions Group and Embedded Solutions Group. Micron Technology's products include: NAND Flash Memory, Dynamic Random Access Memory and NOR Flash Memory. Through its segments, Micron Technology is able to provide important components for technology products exisiting in various industries. As these industries continue to expand worldwide, Micron Technology is poised to see rising profits well into the future.

NEW! Discover a new stock idea each week for less than the cost of 1 trade. CLICK HERE for your Weekly Stock Cheat Sheets NOW!

T = Technicals on the Stock Chart are Strong

Micron Technology stock has suffered in recent years but seems to have found value between the in the single digit price range. The stock has bounced off of the lower end of its established range with conviction so it may be getting ready to break higher. Analyzing the price trend and its strength can be done using key simple moving averages. What are the key moving averages? The 50-day (pink), 100-day (blue), and 200-day (yellow) simple moving averages. As seen in the daily price chart below, Micron Technology is trading above its rising key averages which signal neutral to bullish price action in the near-term.

MU

(Source: Thinkorswim)

Taking a look at the implied volatility (red) and implied volatility skew levels of Micron Technology options may help determine if investors are bullish, neutral, or bearish.

Implied Volatility (IV)

30-Day IV Percentile

90-Day IV Percentile

Micron Technology Options

50.6%

73%

72%

What does this mean? This means that investors or traders are buying a significant amount of call and put options contracts, as compared to the last 30 and 90 trading days.

Put IV Skew

Call IV Skew

May Options

Average

Average

June Options

Average

Average

As of today, there is an average demand from call and put buyers or sellers, neutral over the next two months. To summarize, investors are buying a significant amount of call and put option contracts and are leaning neutral over the next two months.

On the next page, let’s take a look at the earnings and revenue growth rates and the conclusion.

E = Earnings Are Mixed Quarter-Over-Quarter

Rising stock prices are often strongly correlated with rising earnings and revenue growth rates. Also, the last four quarterly earnings announcement reactions help gauge investor sentiment on Micron Technology’s stock. What do the last four quarterly earnings and revenue growth (Y-O-Y) figures for Micron Technology look like and more importantly, how did the markets like these numbers?

2012 Q4

2012 Q3

2012 Q2

2012 Q1

Earnings Growth (Y-O-Y)

3.45%

-42.11%

-76.27%

-557.14%

Revenue Growth (Y-O-Y)

3.43%

-12.25%

-8.27%

1.54%

Earnings Reaction

10.69%

-6.92%

-0.66%

-7.84%

Micron Technology has seen mixed earnings and revenue figures over the last four quarters. From these figures, the markets were excited about Micron Technology’s most recent earnings announcement.

NEW! Discover a new stock idea each week for less than the cost of 1 trade. CLICK HERE for your Weekly Stock Cheat Sheets NOW!

P = Average Relative Performance Versus Peers and Sector

How has Micron Technology stock done relative to its peers, Spansion (NYSE:CODE), Intel (NASDAQ:INTC), SanDisk (NASDAQ:SNDK), and sector?

Micron Technology

Spansion

Intel

SanDisk

Sector

Year-to-Date Return

14.11%

-0.18%

22.83%

20.64%

7.31%

Micron Technology has been an average performer, year-to-date.

Conclusion

Micron Technology operates in an expanding semiconductor industry that provides valuable products to consumers and businesses worldwide. The stock has struggled in recent years but seems to have stabilized at bit and could be heading higher. The most recent earnings and revenue figures really pleased investors so the stock has been doing well. Relative to its peers and sector, Micron Technology has been an average year-to-date performer. WAIT AND SEE what Micron Technology does this coming quarter.

Friday, September 13, 2013

Is Tivo Heading In the Right Direction?

With shares of Tivo (NASDAQ:TIVO) trading at around $13.09, is TIVO an OUTPERFORM, WAIT AND SEE or STAY AWAY? Let's analyze the stock with the relevant sections of our CHEAT SHEET investing framework:

C = Catalyst for the Stock's Movement

Tivo recently beat Q1 expectations. EPS came in at -$0.09 on $82.6 million in revenue. Analysts expected -$0.14 on $78.3 million in revenue. On a year-over-year basis, the loss narrowed and revenue increased. Tivo saw the largest MSO subscription increase in over seven years. It signed a distribution deal with Atlantic Broadband (twelfth largest U.S. MSO), it launched a "What to What" feature on Apple Inc.'s (NASDAQ:AAPL) iPad Mini, and it announced that its patent trial with Motorola is set to begin on June 10.

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Tom Rogers, President and CEO of TiVo, said, “The solid financial results this quarter were the outcome of strong operational execution across our business. Our advanced television innovation is helping to drive the global adoption of TiVo as we increased our MSO subscription base by 277,000 subscriptions, our strongest quarter of MSO subscription additions in seven years. We delivered 13 percent year-over-year service and technology revenue growth and reported an Adjusted EBITDA profit, which significantly exceeded our guidance. As a result, we continue to believe that we should be Adjusted EBITDA profitable, even when including litigation spend, for Fiscal 2014.”

That's the good news. The bad news is that Tivo consistently loses money. Promises are often made, but where are the actual results, as in profits? Is management the problem? According to Glassdoor.com, employees have rated their employer a 3.0 of 5, which is average. The concerning stats are that only 50 percent of employees would recommend the company to a friend and that only 42 percent of employees approve of CEO Tom Rogers.

The following are two quotes from employees on Glassdoor.com:

April 1: "Good company going down."

May 19: "Good time on a slowly sinking ship."

Ouch!

Below is a chart comparing fundamentals for Tivo, Dish Network Corp. (NASDAQ:DISH), and Comcast Corporation (NASDAQ:CMCSA).

TIVO DISH CMCSA
Trailing P/E N/A 36.02 17.71
Forward P/E N/A 17.37 15.11
Profit Margin -1.73% 3.46% 10.18%
ROE -1.61% 360.32% 14.21%
Operating Cash Flow 47.29M 1.84B 14.83B
Dividend Yield N/A N/A 1.80%
Short Position 10.80% 2.10% 1.10%

Let's take a look at some more important numbers prior to forming an opinion on this stock.

T = Technicals Are Strong

Tivo has underperformed its peers over a three-year time frame, but the past month has been strong.

1 Month Year-To-Date 1 Year 3 Year
TIVO 19.80% 6.66% 41.49% 48.53%
DISH 0.82% 8.02% 41.89% 110.7%
CMCSA 3.57% 12.97% 51.41% 165.3%

At $13.09, Tivo is trading well above its averages.

50-Day SMA 11.75
200-Day SMA 12.00
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E = Equity to Debt Ratio is Strong

The debt-to-equity ratio for Tivo is stronger than the industry average of 2.60.

Debt-To-Equity Cash Long-Term Debt
TIVO 0.51 627.24M 172.50M
DISH 0.03 7.10B 11.88B
CMCSA 0.95 4.68B 47.23B

E = Earnings Have Been Inconsistent

Tivo is simply unable to deliver consistent profits. Revenue provides at least some reason for hope.

Fiscal Year 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Revenue ($) in millions 250 238 220 238 304
Diluted EPS ($) 1.01 -0.23 -0.74 0.80 -0.04

When we look at the last quarter on a year-over-year basis, we see an increase in revenue and a narrowed loss. However, it’s still a loss.

Quarter Apr. 30, 2012 Jul. 31, 2012 Oct. 31, 2012 Jan. 31, 2013
Revenue ($) in millions 67.77 65.26 82.03 88.86
Diluted EPS ($) -0.17 -0.23 0.44 -0.13

Now let's take a look at the next page for the Conclusion. Is this stock an OUTPERFORM, a WAIT AND SEE, or a STAY AWAY?

Conclusion

Analysts like the stock: 15 Buy, 1 Hold, 0 Sell. However, when profits are scarce and employees aren't confident in the direction of the company or their leader, there is significant cause for concern. Patent settlements have helped Tivo, but experienced investors want organic growth and consistent profits.

Thursday, September 12, 2013

Top 5 Tech Stocks To Watch Right Now

VIVUS (NASDAQ: VVUS  ) has found an Italian to help it out. The biotech announced Tuesday that Menarini�has agreed to market VIVUS' erectile dysfunction drug Spedra in more than 40 European countries plus Australia and New Zealand.

The Italian pharma is paying VIVUS about $21 million upfront and another $30 million -- at current exchange rates -- within the first year of the launch. VIVUS is also due undisclosed royalties and potentially another $102 million at current exchange rates in milestones and other payments over the life of the agreement.

Menarini�has more of the men's sexual health spectrum covered since it also sells Priligy, a treatment for premature ejaculation. The ability for the company to promote more than one drug to doctors shouldn't be underestimated. Having multiple drugs can help a sales rep get in the door and increases efficiency, which should result in higher profits.

Top 5 Tech Stocks To Watch Right Now: ADTRAN Inc.(ADTN)

ADTRAN, Inc. designs, manufactures, markets, and services communications network solutions that enable voice, data, video, and Internet communications across wireline and wireless networks worldwide. Its Carrier Networks division provides fiber and copper-based solutions for service providers to deliver voice, data, and video services to customers? premises and mobile network cell sites. Its products enable services, such as voice, VoIP, IP television, RF video, high speed Internet access, and data services based upon Ethernet, frame relay, TDM, and ATM networks, connecting the network with user components, such as switches, routers, gateways, integrated access devices (IADs), private branch exchanges (PBXs), and telephone key systems. This division serves local exchange carriers, independent operating companies, competitive local exchange carriers, utilities, municipalities, cable MSOs, international carriers, and wireless service providers. The company?s Enterprise Net works division provides Internetworking solutions for enterprise customers to construct voice, data, and video networks within their sites or among distributed sites. It offers Internetworking solutions, including IP business gateways, optical network terminals, virtual wireless LAN products, multi-service routers, managed Ethernet switches, IP PBX products, IP phone products, unified communications and unified threat management solutions, and carrier Ethernet network terminating equipment, as well as provides IADs. This division serves the retail, food service, healthcare, finance, government, education, manufacturing, military, transportation, hospitality, and energy/utility markets. ADTRAN, Inc. also provides digital data service and integrated services digital network products, high bit-rate digital subscriber line products, T1/E1/T3, channel service units/data service units, and fixed wireless products. The company was founded in 1985 and is headquartered in Huntsville, Alabama.

Top 5 Tech Stocks To Watch Right Now: UTStarcom Inc.(UTSI)

UTStarcom Holdings Corp. designs and sells Internet protocol (IP)-based telecommunications infrastructure products to telecommunications service providers and operators worldwide. It provides solutions in IPTV, interactive (iD) TV, Internet TV, and broadband, as well as related installation and maintenance services. It offers multimedia communications products, including RollingStream, an IPTV solution that enables a service provider to deliver broadcast television and on-demand video services to residential and commercial premises over a switched network architecture; mSwitch, a next generation network solution that enables service providers to migrate from existing circuit platforms to a next generation IP-based switch architecture, or to launch new applications in new deployment environments that have no legacy infrastructure; and a personal access system, as well as provides related consulting, technical, project, quality, and maintenance support-level services. The co mpany also provides broadband infrastructure products comprising broadband access products consisting of multi-service access node products; digital subscriber line (DSL) products, such as DSL modems, set-top boxes, and voice over the internet devices for residential and business customers; and gigabit Ethernet passive optical network products, as well as optical transport products, including packet optical transport network products, multi-service transport platform, and resilient packet ring. It sells its products through direct sales, original equipment manufacturers, distributors, resellers, agents, and licensees primarily in China, Japan, India, and other Asian markets; the United States; Latin America; and Europe. The company was formerly known as UTStarcom, Inc. and changed its name to UTStarcom Holdings Corp. in June 2011. UTStarcom Holdings Corp. was founded in 1991 and is headquartered in Beijing, China.

Hot Casino Companies To Buy For 2014: Advanced Semiconductor Engineering Inc (ASX)

Advanced Semiconductor Engineering, Inc. is principally engaged in the manufacture, assembly, processing, testing and distribution of integrated circuits (ICs). The Company provides semiconductor packaging and testing services, including plastic leaded chip carriers (PLCCs), quad flat packages (QFPs) and flip chip packaging technology, among others, which are applied in the manufacture of household electrical appliances, communication devices, automobile components, personal computers, set top boxes, servers, memory integrated circuits (ICs), mobile phones, digital cameras, game consoles, projectors, high definition (HD) televisions, wireless communication network products and power management ICs, among others. The Company operates its businesses primarily in Taiwan, Europe and the Americas. In August 2010, the Company acquired a 100% interest in EEMS Test Singapore.

The Company is focused on packaging and testing logic semiconductors. The Company offers its customers turnkey services, which consist of packaging, testing and direct shipment of semiconductors to end users designated by its customers. The Company�� global base of over 200 customers includes semiconductor companies across a range of end use applications, including Altera Corporation, ATI Technologies, Inc., Broadcom Corporation, Cambridge Silicon Radio Limited and Microsoft Corporation. During the year ended December 31, 2008, the Company�� packaging revenues accounted for 77.7% of its net revenues and its testing revenues accounted for 20.1% of its net revenues.

Packaging Services

The Company offers a range of package types to meet the requirements of its customers, with a focus on packaging solutions. Within its portfolio of package types, the Company focuses on the packaging of semiconductors. These include advanced leadframe-based package types, such as quad flat package, thin quad flat package, bump chip carrier and quad flat no-lead package, and package types based on substrates, such a! s flip-chip ball grid array (BGA) and other BGA types, as well as other packages, such as wafer-bumping products. Leadframe-based packages are packaged by connecting the die, using wire bonders, to the leadframe with gold wire. The Company�� leadframe-based packages include quad flat package (QFP)/ thin quad flat package (TQFP), quad flat no-lead package (QFN)/microchip carrier (MCC), advanced quad flat no-lead package (AQFN), bump chip carrier (BCC), small outline plastic package (SOP)/thin small outline plastic package (TSOP), small outline plastic j-bend package (SOJ), plastic leaded chip carrier (PLCC) and plastic dual in-line package (PDIP). Substrate-based packages employ the BGA design, which utilizes a substrate rather than a leadframe. It also assembles system-in-a-package products, which involve the integration of more than one chip into the same package. The Company�� substrate-based packages include Plastic BGA, Cavity Down BGA, Stacked-Die BGA, Flip-Chip BGA and land grid array (LGA).

The Company�� wafer-level packaging products include wafer level chip scale package (aCSP) and advanced wafer level package (aWLP). The Company offers module assembly services, which combine one or more packaged semiconductors with other components in an integrated module to enable functionality, typically using surface mount technology (SMT) machines and other machinery and equipment for system-level assembly. End use applications for modules include cellular phones, personal digital assistant (PDAs), wireless local area network (LAN) applications, bluetooth applications, camera modules, automotive applications and toys.

The Company provides module assembly services primarily at its facilities in Korea for radio frequency and power amplifier modules used in wireless communications and automotive applications. Interconnect materials connect the input/output on the semiconductor dies to the printed circuit board. Interconnect materials include substrate, which is a multi-layer m! iniature ! printed circuit board. The Company produces substrates for use in its packaging operations.

Testing Services

The Company provides a range of semiconductor testing services, including front-end engineering testing, wafer probing, final testing of logic/mixed-signal/radio frequency (RF) and memory semiconductors and other test-related services. The Company provides front-end engineering testing services, including customized software development, electrical design validation, and reliability and failure analysis. The Company provides final testing services for a variety of memory products, such as static random access memory (SRAM), dynamic random access memory (DRAM), single-bit erasable programmable read-only memory semiconductors and flash memory semiconductors.

The Company provides a range of additional test-related services, including burn-in testing, module sip testing, dry pack, tape and reel, and electric interface board and mechanical test tool design. The Company offers drop shipment services for shipment of semiconductors directly to end users designated by its customers.

Top 5 Tech Stocks To Watch Right Now: Savient Pharmaceuticals Inc(SVNT)

Savient Pharmaceuticals, Inc., a specialty biopharmaceutical company, focuses on developing KRYSTEXXA, a biologic PEGylated uricase in the United States. The KRYSTEXXA is being developed as a treatment for chronic gout in patients refractory to conventional therapy. The company also sells and distributes branded and generic versions of oxandrolone, a drug used to promote weight gain following involuntary weight loss. It sells its products directly to drug wholesalers. The company, formerly known as Bio-Technology General Corp. and changed its name to Savient Pharmaceuticals, Inc. in June 2003. Savient Pharmaceuticals, Inc. was founded in 1980 and is headquartered in East Brunswick, New Jersey.

Top 5 Tech Stocks To Watch Right Now: Advanced Energy Industries Inc.(AEIS)

Advanced Energy Industries, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, manufactures, sells, and supports power conversion products that transform power into various usable forms. It offers thin-film deposition power conversion systems, including direct current (DC), pulsed DC mid frequency, and radio frequency (RF) power supplies, as well as matching networks and RF instrumentation; and thermal instrumentation products that provide temperature measurement solutions for applications in which time-temperature cycles affect material properties, productivity, and yield. The company also offers solar power inverters, which provide a transformer-based or transformerless grid-tie photovoltaic (PV) solution to convert renewable solar power into electrical power, as well as integrated monitoring and performance measurement of PV installations. Its power conversion systems are used by semiconductor, solar panel, and similar thin-film manufacturers, such as flat panel display, da ta storage, and architectural glass manufacturers; thermal instrumentation products are used in rapid thermal processing, chemical vapor deposition, and other semiconductor and solar applications requiring non-contact temperature measurement by the semiconductor, solar panels, and LED industries; and solar inverters are used in the residential, commercial, and utility-scale solar projects and installations. In addition, the company provides repair services, conversions, upgrades, and refurbishment services, as well as operations and maintenance service plans for individual PV sites. Advanced Energy Industries, Inc. sells its products through direct sales force, sales representatives, and distributors in North America, Europe, and Asia. The company was founded in 1981 and is headquartered in Fort Collins, Colorado.

Tuesday, September 10, 2013

What Activist Investors Do to Stocks You Own

Sooner or later, an activist investor will target a stock you own.

Activist investors have been more active than ever before over the past year and increasingly have gone after some of the most commonly held stocks in Corporate America, including Apple Inc. (Nasdaq: AAPL), The Procter & Gamble Co. (NYSE: PG), and J.C. Penney Co. Inc. (NYSE: JCP).

"No company, no matter how large, is beyond the reach of activists," Claudia Allen, a partner and head of the corporate governance practice at Katten Muchin Rosenman, told USA Today. "We are seeing some of the iconic names in Corporate America confronted by activists."

By now most investors realize what this scenario can mean to a company: Stocks can spike (or plunge), and the heads of CEOs may roll.

Just this year, top activist investors have made a lot of waves in the market. A few of the more prominent examples:

A series of mid-August tweets (the first on Aug. 13) from Carl Icahn, perhaps the best-known activist investor of them all, has helped push Apple stock up 5%. Icahn is urging Apple CEO Tim Cook to step up its stock buyback program. The dramatic announcement that CEO Steve Ballmer would be surrendering the reins to Microsoft Corp. (Nasdaq: MSFT) within 12 months was driven in large part by efforts of hedge fund ValueAct. The activist shareholder used its large stake in the company to get a seat on the board. Among the items on ValueAct's agenda was a change at the top. MSFT shot up 7% on the day of the announcement. Activist investor Bill Ackman finally threw in the towel this week on his three-year attempt to revive the fortunes of troubled retailer J.C. Penney. He sold his entire 18% stake, 39 million shares, to Citigroup on Aug. 26 for a loss of some $500 million. The episode has helped erase 50% of the value of Penney stock, although the announcement that Ackman had bailed out did give JCP a 2.5% boost. Dan Loeb had much better luck than Ackman with Yahoo! Inc. (Nasdaq: YHOO). After building up a 5% stake over 2011 and 2012, Loeb pushed for the ouster of CEO Scott Thomson in favor of Marissa Mayer and persuaded the company to sell 7% of its stake in Chinese Internet company Alibaba. Yahoo bought back Loeb's shares in July, but was able to pocket a profit of nearly 80% - as were any YHOO shareholders who were along for the ride. In one of the craziest cases of activist investing, Ackman and Icahn squared off over nutritional-supplement maker Herbalife Ltd. (NYSE: HLF) earlier this year. Ackman shorted the stock while Icahn increased his stake. The fight sparked a lot of short-term volatility, but at this point Icahn is winning big time - HLF is up a whopping 75% since the battle began in February.

Clearly, it's a good idea to pay attention to what these shareholders are doing. If you know what to look for, and understand what activist investors do to stocks, you can profit from this growing trend...

Anatomy of an Activist Investor

The first thing people need to know is that activist investors are not the bad actors many believe them to be (which is exactly what most corporate boards, who fear the wrath of activist investors, want you to think.)

The negative image traces its roots back to the beginnings of activist investing in the late 1970s and early 1980s. Back then, such pioneers as Carl Icahn, derided at the time as "corporate raiders" and personified in the film character Gordon Gekko, would acquire large positions in a company and threaten to take it over unless appeased by a stock buyback or premium.

Companies often suffered as a result of the heavy-handed tactics. For instance, Icahn bought Trans World Airlines in 1985 and made nearly $500 million taking it private.

But as he managed TWA for his own profit, he undermined its ability to survive. TWA went bankrupt in 1992.

Since then, activist investors like Icahn have come to realize they can use more deft strategies and still make money.

Now hedge fund managers like Icahn tend to identify companies that they feel are undervalued for some reason and figure out a strategy to restore that value. That can be with a new CEO, a stock buyback, or something more creative, like David Einhorn's suggestion in February that Apple create preferred stock to pay an extra-large dividend.

"The big thing we do is we make the CEO and management accountable," Icahn told The Wall Street Journal recently. "[Activists] must do the job that, with exceptions, boards are not doing."

It turns out such actions usually help the company - to the benefit of existing shareholders - rather than harming it.

And there's proof that's true...

The Truth About How Activist Investors Affect Stocks

A study released in July, "The Long-Term Effects of Hedge Fund Activism," by Alon Brav of Duke University, Lucian A. Bebchuk of Harvard University, and Wei Jang of Columbia University, showed clearly that in most cases, activist investors have a positive effect on a stock.
activist investors
The study looked at 2,000 cases of activist investing from 1994 through 2007.

One key observation was that the activist investors targeted companies that were substantially underperforming their peers. Over the next five years, those companies closed two-thirds of that gap in terms of return on assets.

The study also found that stock gains made when an activist investor first announces his intentions, which average about 6%, held up over the ensuing five years.

So all the bluster from CEOs and board members about how activist investors are bad for companies is just that - bluster.

"The people who are saying that are usually just saying: 'Hey, give me more time to make the same mistakes,'" Ralph Whitworth, a founder of Relational Investors LLC, told the Journal. "This is what I always tell these people: We bought the stock from your long-term shareholders. And if I am here, I am the longest-term shareholder you've got."

What to Do When an Activist Investor Targets Your Stock

Perhaps the most important thing retail investors need to keep in mind when a restless hedge fund manager takes an interest in a stock they own is that by the time you've heard about it, there's little you can do.

In fact, if you already own a stock targeted by an activist investor, the best strategy is simply to hold onto your shares.

What you don't want to do, experts say, is chase after activist investors.

Although activist investors always begin by accumulating large stakes in the companies they target, those positions only get revealed in quarterly 13F filings, although the fund must file a 13D form within 10 days if the stake exceeds 5%.

Still, for retail investors, it's generally too late to jump on the bandwagon once an activist investor goes public with his intentions.

Yet there is one way retail investors can share some of the gains generated by activist investors - buy a fund that tracks what top hedge funds are doing.

Two exchange-traded funds apply proprietary screens to the 13F filings to generate their portfolios: the AlphaClone Alternative Alpha ETF (NYSEARCA: ALFA) and the Global X Top Guru Holdings Index ETF (NYSEARCA: GURU).

But the best bet for piggybacking on the strategies of the top activist investors is a mutual fund, the 13D Activist Fund (MUTF: DDDAX). This fund invests in the companies listed in the 13D filings of the most experienced activist investors, a strategy that has paid off well this year, with the fund up more than 24% in 2013.

Next: Will activist investor Bill Ackman's latest target - Air Products & Chemicals - pay off or end in disaster like his misadventure with J.C. Penney? Here's what to expect...

Related Articles:

Money Morning:
Two Bank Stocks to Buy Now Before Activist Investors Goose Share Prices Money Morning:
Will Carl Icahn's Latest Move Push Dell Stock Even Higher? The Wall Street Journal:
Activist Investors: A Roar or a Bark? USA Today:
Activist Investors Eye Big Brand-Name Companies The Wall Street Journal:
The Myth of Hedge Funds as 'Myopic Activists'

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