Tuesday, February 18, 2014

Diana Shipping Inc. (DSX) Q4 Earnings Preview: Getting That Sinking Feeling

Diana Shipping Inc. (NYSE:DSX) announced that its financial results for the fourth quarter and year ended December 31, 2013 are scheduled to be released before the opening of the U.S. financial markets on Tuesday, February 18, 2014. The Company's management will conduct a conference call and simultaneous Internet webcast to review these results at 9:00 A.M. (Eastern Time).

Wall Street anticipates that the shipping company will lose $0.06 per share for the quarter, which is $0.12 less than last year's profit of $0.06 per share. iStock expects DSX  to miss Wall Street's consensus number. The iEstimate is -$0.07, one penny less than expected.

[Related -DryShips Inc. (DRYS): Which Dry Bulk Stocks To Buy Ahead Of Market Improvement?]

Diana Shipping is a global provider of shipping transportation services. It specializes in transporting dry bulk cargoes, including such commodities as iron ore, coal, grain and other materials along worldwide shipping routes. The Company's fleet consists of 23 dry bulk carriers, of which 14 are Panamax, one is Post-Panamax and eight are Capesize dry bulk carriers, having a combined carrying capacity of approximately 2.5 million deadweight tons (dwt).

The Athens, Greece based Diana has a history of bullish surprises that hug Wall Street's outlook.

DSX has sailed past Wall Street's estimates 12 of the last 16 quarters. On average, Diana Shipping posted profits that exceeded the consensus by $0.2 with a range of $0.01 to $0.05 for the dozen bullish beats. On the other side of the wave of better than expected results were three misses, two by a penny and a three cent shortfall. That leaves one on-target result, if you are keeping track.

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Unfortunately for shareholders, DSX has taken on water in the three-days surrounding 11 of the last 16 quarterly checkups. Typically, the stock price sunk -4.55% for the 10 red reactions with a max loss of -17.90% and minimum drop of -0.10%. The handful of positive, price responses ranged from 0.10% to 8.20% with an average gain of 3.48%.

Shippers are facing tsunami like head-waves in 2014. According to hellenicshippingnews.com, "The cost of hiring the largest commodity carriers had its biggest monthly plunge in two years. The slump is the most since the same month in 2012. The Baltic Dry Index, a wider measure of freight costs spanning smaller ships, slid 51 percent, also the most in two years."

That can't be good for guidance.

Falling rates and rising costs were a problem for Diana last quarter. Time charter equivalent (TCE) rates were $ 12,990 during Q3. That was down from $21,335 from the previous year. Meanwhile, year-over-year (YoY) Voyage Expenses plus Vessel Operating Expenses increased 20.65%.

TCE could be higher for Q4 as dryships.com reports rates rose during the last three months of 2014; however, they have crashed since the start of the new year, which doesn't bode well for shipping companies.

Overall:  Diana Shipping Inc. (NYSE:DSX) is likely to hug Wall Street's consensus estimate, yet again, with a downside bias based on the iEstimate; although, forward guidance could be rough considering the crash of TCE rates. 

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